Ravioli, Prediction Markets & Debates

This market resolves to Yes if by December 31, 2026, any U.S. federal or state government entity, university, or recognized research institution announces a study specifically focused on assessing the impact of restricted access to contraception on the rate of teen pregnancies.

This market resolves to Yes if the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) issues a formal antitrust complaint against the merger of Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) and Paramount by the end of December 31, 2026. The resolution is based on official announcements or documents confirming the filing of such a complaint. This market acknowledges DOJ's intensified probe as reported by multiple sources.

This market resolves to Yes if the lawsuit filed by the coalition of minority-owned bodegas and supermarkets results in stopping, invalidating, or indefinitely delaying the NYC plan to build city-run grocery stores before December 31, 2026. Any court decision or settlement that prevents the stores from being established by this date will constitute a 'Yes' outcome.

Will the adoption rate for the new COVID-19 vaccines in the U.S. reach at least 50% by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to 'Yes' if official data from the CDC or a similar authoritative source shows that at least 50% of the eligible U.S. population has received one of the FDA-approved 2026-2027 COVID-19 vaccines by December 31, 2026. If data shows that less than 50% have been vaccinated by this date, the market resolves to 'No'.

This market resolves to Yes if any major sports league (such as the NFL, NBA, MLB, or Premier League) announces a policy requiring their finals or championship games to be broadcast on free-to-air television in addition to any paywalled streaming services by the end of 2026. The announcement must come explicitly from the league itself, not from individual broadcasters.

This market resolves to Yes if Luigi Mangione is found guilty of at least one federal stalking charge related to the case involving the death of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson by the end of December 2026. Any official court verdict or plea that acknowledges guilt for stalking at the federal level will determine the resolution.

Will the U.S. Supreme Court rule to uphold a federal ban on assault weapons by December 31, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if the U.S. Supreme Court issues a ruling by December 31, 2026, that upholds the legality of a federal ban on assault weapons. The decision must explicitly address a federal assault weapons ban in place and conclude that it is constitutional. If no such ruling is issued, or if the Court rules against the ban's constitutionality, the market resolves to No. Any related rulings must be publicly available and verifiable through official Supreme Court records.

Will more than five U.S. school districts announce new teacher misconduct policies by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if six or more U.S. school districts publicly announce and implement new policies specifically addressing teacher misconduct by December 31, 2026. Announcements must be verifiable through official district press releases or reputable news sources.

This market resolves to Yes if Floyd Mayweather participates in a sanctioned professional boxing match that is not an exhibition bout by the end of December 31, 2026. Exhibition matches and any unsanctioned fights will not fulfill the criteria for this market.

Will OpenAI implement the 'Declaration of Humanity' guidelines by December 31, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if OpenAI publicly announces the adoption and integration of all five main pillars of the 'Declaration of Humanity' guidelines by December 31, 2026. These pillars include maintaining human control, preventing the centralization of power, protecting personal freedom, ensuring corporate accountability under the law, and confirming AI safety before use. If no such announcement is made by this date, the market resolves to No.