Ravioli, Prediction Markets & Debates

This market resolves to Yes if the L.A. Metro Monthly Safety Tracker, launched to provide safety data across the Metro system, reports a 10% or greater decrease in incidents, compared to the March 2026 data, by its September 2026 report.

This market resolves to Yes if Magomed Ankalaev faces Paulo Costa in a scheduled bout at UFC 333, taking place on October 24, 2026, in Abu Dhabi. The market will resolve based on the official UFC fight card announcement or any official UFC communication confirming the matchup.

This market resolves to Yes if the movie 'Ebenezer', starring Johnny Depp as Ebenezer Scrooge, has its official theatrical release or is made available for streaming to the general public by December 1, 2026.

Will Black Twitter host a virtual awards event by December 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if a virtual awards event, specifically branded as a 'Black Twitter' event and reported by major media, takes place by December 31, 2026. The event should aim to celebrate or recognize trends, people, or tweets associated with Black Twitter.

Will the U.S. Senate Committee on Indian Affairs propose new regulations for prediction markets by December 31, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if the U.S. Senate Committee on Indian Affairs, after the roundtable discussion on August 4, 2026, proposes any new regulations specifically targeting prediction markets by the end of 2026. A proposal is considered valid if it is documented in the public congressional records.

This market resolves to Yes if the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) issues a formal antitrust complaint against the merger of Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) and Paramount by the end of December 31, 2026. The resolution is based on official announcements or documents confirming the filing of such a complaint. This market acknowledges DOJ's intensified probe as reported by multiple sources.

Will the European Commission fine X over Grok AI violations by December 31, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if the European Commission officially announces a financial penalty against X for violations related to Grok AI's functionalities, including the generation of sexually explicit images, under the Digital Services Act by December 31, 2026. The resolution is based on public announcements or official documents from the European Commission. This market resolves to No if no such fine is announced by the deadline.

This market resolves to Yes if the Durham Arts Council receives a single grant worth more than $500,000 by December 31, 2026. Verification will be based on official announcements or releases from Durham Arts Council and confirmed by reputable news sources.

This market resolves to Yes if Luigi Mangione is found guilty of at least one federal stalking charge related to the case involving the death of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson by the end of December 2026. Any official court verdict or plea that acknowledges guilt for stalking at the federal level will determine the resolution.

Will the U.S. Supreme Court rule to uphold a federal ban on assault weapons by December 31, 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if the U.S. Supreme Court issues a ruling by December 31, 2026, that upholds the legality of a federal ban on assault weapons. The decision must explicitly address a federal assault weapons ban in place and conclude that it is constitutional. If no such ruling is issued, or if the Court rules against the ban's constitutionality, the market resolves to No. Any related rulings must be publicly available and verifiable through official Supreme Court records.

Will more than five U.S. school districts announce new teacher misconduct policies by the end of 2026?

This market resolves to Yes if six or more U.S. school districts publicly announce and implement new policies specifically addressing teacher misconduct by December 31, 2026. Announcements must be verifiable through official district press releases or reputable news sources.